Thursday, January 10, 2013

Could Apple release an iPhone and a new iPad every 6 months?

Are talking a lot lately about the possibility that Apple change its current product cycle to launch a new iPhone and a new iPad every six months instead of the current annual cycle. From MacStories have performed an analysis of the different tests and found that apparently show that is very likely to occur.

ciclo renovacion apple 650x232 ¿Podría Apple Lanzar un iPhone y un iPad nuevos cada 6 Meses?

An annual renewal cycle leads to a drop in sales by mid-year

Last year Apple released a new iPhone, the iPad Mini and the fourth generation of the iPad, all between September and October. This is quite important, since between the iPhone and the iPad accounted for 69% of Apple's revenue. No doubt that Apple releases scheduled for late this year to get take a good chunk of the holiday sales pie. Because these updates of its two most important products, Apple is likely to offer some stellar earnings data in the first quarter of 2013. However, this means that, when you get the last two quarters of 2013, both the iPhone 5 and the iPad in April and will be "old" and competitors can catch up and launch more competitive products.

ventas iPhone ¿Podría Apple Lanzar un iPhone y un iPad nuevos cada 6 Meses?

In fact, Apple last year and experienced a sharp slowdown in iPhone sales during Q3 and Q4, due to a combination of increased competition (with some important releases), rumors of new products and the expectation that a new iPhone would arrive shortly. At least in 2012 the Cupertino could partially offset the drop in sales of the iPhone with an increase in sales of iPad to launch the iPad 3 and possible sales of the iPhone 4S. The launch of a new iPhone and a new iPad for September / October would be a boost to sales in Q1, but would be a very steep sales decline in mid-2013.

That said, we might ask the following questions:

  • So what? Apple really cares if your earnings in Q3 and Q4 down a bit when in Q1 are skyrocketing?
  • Does the negative impact of sales competition, rumors and expectations of new products are so serious that justify the expense of having to launch new devices every 6 months?

Two launches per year would moderate the high initial demand

In launching twice a year new models of iPhone and iPad, Apple is moderating the initial demand for these devices. People would buy all models, but most people decide whether to buy a model or the next, which would occur with a division between releases. Therefore, it would be much more manageable for the Apple supply management because there would need to rapidly increase production to incredible levels of the devices to meet the demand of release. On the other hand, no longer produce as pronounced a decline in sales by mid-year, would be a rather more modest acceleration between releases every six months.

But Apple is getting better preparing the supply chain for the launch of the devices. The iPhone 5 suffered from shortages at first, but quickly recovered, even having launched the iPad Mini just weeks later. As long as you continue to improve, maybe soon may come to no shortage of units in the throws.

An annual release leaves a huge hole in Apple's release schedule

calendario lanzamientos apple 1 480x350 ¿Podría Apple Lanzar un iPhone y un iPad nuevos cada 6 Meses?

If you look at the calendar of big announcements from Apple in 2011, you will see a calendar quite spread. In 2012 they were a little busy, but still looks pretty clear calendar of events. And we do not know what surprises Apple has in store for 2013, it is safe to say that, following the trend of 2011 and 2012, in 2013 there will be a large period of about seven months in which Apple will not release updates for its most important products (including updates for the Mac in 2012 were conducted in the second half of the year).

calendario lanzamientos apple 2013 650x232 ¿Podría Apple Lanzar un iPhone y un iPad nuevos cada 6 Meses?

However, if we fit a launch new iPhone and iPad every six months (around March and April), the release calendar looks much more attractive. Would leave Apple with 5 keynotes (as in 2012): two events for the iPhone, two events for the iPad and the WWDC. Events for the iPhone and iPad could be exploited to show new Mac or iPod, as happened in 2012.

calendario lanzamientos apple 2013 bianual 650x232 ¿Podría Apple Lanzar un iPhone y un iPad nuevos cada 6 Meses?

However, we know that Apple have plans for this new year and those to come. You might want to use the first half of the year for Mac ads (both hardware and software) and use the second half to focus it on iOS (WWDC, iPhone and iPad). They may need some time to focus on your new product (have Apple TV?), So you need to keep the first half empty to focus on that product.

Anyway, what we will see as you go past the year.

Apple has increased the international launch of the iPhone and iPad

To move to a biannual renewal cycle, Apple would have to make sure I could throw the current iPhone and iPad in virtually all markets, before the announcement of the new model. Not being able to do damage sales and customer goodwill in these regions.

But the latest releases of Apple products (iPhone 5, iPhone 4S and iPad 3) have been able to get to about 100 countries in just 100 days. This undoubtedly represents a very high percentage of market and still leaves about 80 days until the release of the next version.

With a biannual release date and the corresponding "smoothing" of demand, Apple might be able to launch its iPhone and iPad internationally faster because it does not have to cope with initial demand so great in the first month of release, as currently occurs.

Apple has shown that it may launch its products in 100 countries in 100 days, but could get throw in all markets in 180 days? Still, in those countries which later received the device, how to sit to receive anything of this new device in the United States already have the next one? Would it matter?.

Recent rumors, news and views

All this must be picked up with tweezers, we know what that can be unreliable rumors, but it is worth briefly mention some:

  • Yesterday, the CEO of T-Mobile, John Legere, said it will begin selling the iPhone in three or four months instead of the current six to nine months. These words are aligned well with a potential launch of a new iPhone in March or April. However, it could simply refer to the new models will have available before, as happened to Verizon, which received the iPhone 4 around six months after its launch.
  • Brian White, an analyst at Topeka Capital Markets, believes that the next iPhone will be released in May / June.
  • The blog Macotakara claims that the iPad could arrive in March 5.
  • DigiTimes reported on a new iPad and a new iPhone in mid-2013, although we know they are not the most reliable source.

Concluding Remarks

Everything seems to indicate that Apple might switch to a biannual release cycle, both iPhone and on iPad. The question I ask is whether they will be able to innovate fast enough to justify monthly updates of its products, something that should worry Apple, we have seen the criticism about the lack of innovation that has been the iPhone 5. My guess is that Apple may decide to focus on design changes for upgrades in spring and fall performance improvements, as happened with the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 4S.

Apple may pass or not to release schedule twice a year for the iPhone and iPad, but what is certain is that 2013 will be another interesting year for the Cupertino and therefore we like for your brand .

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1 comment:

  1. Yes, Lots of people wants apple to give the new updates in smart phones. So it's a more skillful blog to users.